A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
